This post aims to provide a further analysis of how much the mainchat activity affects the events’ turnout. It will try to strengthen, or debunk, the claims of the first post I wrote back in July, which you should read to get a main idea, and add a new variant that affects the event participation.

Introduction

As it was said in the first volume, the mainchat of an army is its heart. It is the place where the members of the server, whether they are troops, staff, leaders, or even allies and visitors, can gather to discuss. It is the place where events are usually led and hyped. The place with the most activity within a Discord server. To put in comparison, in Club Penguin Armies, there have been about 918 thousand messages in the mainchat this year. Outside of it, there are only around 113 thousand. This shows that 89% of the activity in the server is gathered within the main chat. Both the mainchat activity and the event participation are affected by multiple variables.

In the first post, it was shown that the mainchat activity and the number of people attending events are connected. The Top Tens were used to gain data, as they are a good way to monitor an army’s trend, especially as they contain a variety of information. By looking at them, someone can find out statistics about the number of events and the type of them, if they were battles, for example, as well as the number of events participants and the consistency. The size points are a good measurement to figure out approximately how many people attend an army’s event. When an army hosts more events, it is more accurate, as it takes them all into account and can’t be manipulated that easily. The number of messages over a time period is easily obtained through the Discord servers.

In July, it was found out that the main chat and the size points are connected with the following formula, y = 3*10^-8*x^2-0.0002*x+8.39, where x is the number of mainchat messages and y is the size points.

Collected Data 

In order to figure out whether the formula can be applied for November, or if more things need to be taken into consideration, I collected data, but this time for November. I chose to include the four weeks of November as none of them contained any tournaments, so the chances of inflated sizes are less. Additionally, I took the average of those weeks to have even more accurate data. Below you can see the four boards made to include the Major and Small Medium messages per week, their sum and average, as well as the Major and SM size points, sum and average.

It should be noted that I did not collect data for some armies. That was either due to them not having events consistently, being a very small or meme army, or having their main chat locked. I decided to include the Penguins of Agartha, even though they only had events in one week, because I had included them last time, too. Also, note that armies colored orange use Club Penguin Journey for their events a lot, while armies colored blue mainly use CPA: Battleground. This is a small detail that will be important later. Additionally, notice that I used the “,” symbol instead of “.”, so size averages are written as 30,05, for example, instead of 30.05. The data was collected based on my timezone, so if you count the mainchat messages yourself, you may get slightly different numbers.

Data analysis

Mainchat Messages

The Water Vikings are once again the army with the most messages in their mainchat, seeing an increase as well. They had 268284 messages on total and 67071 on average per week. They were followed by the Rebel Penguin Federation, which had 235317 messages in total and 58854 on average. Compared to June, the gap is much smaller this time, with RPF rising heavily. Surprisingly, the third army with the most messages was the Void Troops, with 134256 and 23018 on average.

Again, the army with the least amount of messages was the Penguins of Agartha, having only 502, with 126 per week. They were followed by the Special Weapons and Tactics which had 787, with an average of 197.

The highest number of messages in a week was seen by WV with 77533 in the third week of November. The least one was in POA in the first week of November, with only 82. VT had the most messages in a week from the SM armies, with 42793 in week 2. The Help Force had the least for the major armies with 12304 in week 3. The VT, the Dark Warriors and the Templars were the only SM armies to have 4-digit number of messages on average. WV and RPF were the only armies to have over 50 thousand.

Size Points

RPF had the most size points both times, reaching 203.97 in total and 50.99 on average this time. They were followed by the Army of Club Penguin, which had 147.43 in total and 36.86 on average, compared to June, when the Aliens were second. Ironically, the Void Troops, a major in June, had 19.8 back then. Now, as a Small-Medium army, it had 21.76. SWAT had the smallest average of 2.75 points. It also had the less size points in a week when they hosted events, gaining 2 size points.

In the SM division, VT was followed by the Star Force with 17.25 on average and the DW with 14.74. Despite only hosting events in 3 weeks, SF managed to surpass most SM armies. Aliens had the fewest points in the major division, with an average of 24.73, being the only army with less than 100 on total. They also had the week with the fewest points in the major division, 22 in the second week of November. RPF had the most with 53.36 on the third. In the SM division, SF had the most, 32 in the third week, with SWAT having the least as it was mentioned earlier.

June – November Comparison

I also made a table to include the averages of each army in July and November and the difference in percentages between them, so that the change can be better visualised. Armies that were not included in June are marked with a “-“.

Messages

From that table, we see that usually, the change in the number of messages also changes the sizes similarly. Especially in the Aliens case. There are some exceptions, though, like the Help Force and the Water Vikings. The Romans had the largest rise in mainchat messages, seeing an increase of 231%, followed by SF that had a 70.1% increase and then RPF with 59.9%. The biggest decrease was from POA with -84.7% followed by SWAT with -76.7% and TCP with -36%.

When it comes to numbers, RPF had the largest message increase, gaining about 22 thousand on average. TCP had the largest decrease, losing about 10 thousand on average.

Size Points

HF had the largest points increase, going up by 24.7%, followed by RPF with 22.4% and Romans with 20%. At the opposite side, SWAT had a -63.3% decrease followed by TCP with -48.6% and POA with -40.9%. In numbers, RPF had the biggest rise, of around 9 points and TCP had the largest decrease, losing 10 points on average.

Graphs

From this graph, there isn’t much. Armies are pretty much scattered. There seems to be an increase in the size points that correlates with an increase in the number of messages in mainchat. Notice that the x-axis is logarithmic in all graphs apart from the last one. Armies marked as orange are the ones who use CPJ a lot while the blue ones mainly use CPAB. Orange armies seem to have more size points with less messages, so I plotted the 2 categories separately.

In this one, we see that there is a clear correlation between sizes and messages. There is an insignificant change when it comes to the smaller SM armies but for the larger ones and the major it plays a part. I chose a linear fit this time, so the equation seems to be y=0.0004x + 5.5249, where y is the size points and x the number of the mainchat messages.

While there were only 5 armies in this category, there seem to be enough of them. Compared to the non CPJ armies, the sizes are larger for the same number of messages. This is also portrayed from the linear fit as well, with the equation being y=0.0006x + 16.427. It means armies have a much larger boost in CPJ, by about 11 points and at the same time they are able to grow quicker too. The next graph can help see the difference more easily. It is the same as the first but the axes are reversed and the x and y axes are linear. Notice that CPJ armies are mainly further on the right, which means they get more size points.

Calculating where some armies would place

If They Mainly Hosted CPAB Events – Using the CPAB Equation

Starting from the Scarlet Republic, which recently announced its return. They had 3314 messages in the past week, so if they use CPAB they are expected to have around 6.85 size points. Of course, they haven’t opened yet, so their main chat activity is expected to rise. The same goes for the next army, the Teutons. They only reopened their server very recently, around a week ago. When I collected the data they were only opened for 6 days and had 2246 messages. Multiplying that with *7/6 to get the 7-day equivalent, we get 2620. This means they would have 6.57 size points. Lastly, the Ice Warriors had 29945 messages in the mainchat the past week. That would give them around 17.5 size points if they were active as an army.

If They Mainly Hosted CPJ Events – Using the CPJ Equation

In that case, SR would have 18.42 size points, Teutons 17.77 and IW 34.39. That is a huge difference compared to the previous case and would place SR and Teutons in the high end of SM armies, while IW would be around the top 3 Major armies.

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Last of all, here is a Top Ten armies for November based on the average number of messages per army. The arrows depict the difference between the placement in June’s Top Ten Active Armies. 

Top Ten Active Armies

1. Water Vikings ⟨67071⟩ ⟨+5831⟩ [–]

2. Rebel Penguin Federation ⟨58854⟩ ⟨+22048⟩ [–]

3. Void Troops ⟨33564⟩ ⟨+7876⟩ [↑2]

4. Army of Club Penguin ⟨27775⟩ ⟨–⟩ [NEW]

5. Aliens ⟨23968⟩ ⟨-4331⟩ [↓2]

6. Dark Warriors ⟨20281⟩ ⟨–⟩ [NEW]

7. Help Force ⟨17780⟩ ⟨-1902⟩ [↓1]

8. Templars ⟨17512⟩ ⟨-9858⟩ [↓4]

9. Elite Guardians of Club Penguin ⟨7145⟩ ⟨–⟩ [NEW]

10. Romans ⟨6078⟩ ⟨+4242⟩ [–]

CLOSE tO TOP TEN

11. Star Force ⟨2672⟩ ⟨+1101⟩ [–]

12. Special Weapons and Tactics ⟨197⟩ ⟨-647⟩ [–]

13. Penguins of Agartha ⟨126⟩ ⟨-697⟩ [–]

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Did you enjoy this post? Do you believe the main chat activity has any correlation with the troop attendance? Do you believe that using CPJ helps with having more attendance? What are your thoughts? What will the next Top Ten Active Armies look like?

Jojo Teri
Chief Executive Producer

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