Over time, armies have always aimed at increasing their size in events, as with more troops, they are more likely to win battles. The question that arises is, how much does the army’s main chat activity influence the event sizes? In order to answer this question, we will have to look first at some data from the past few weeks.
Designed by Edu14463
Introduction
One of the most important parts of the Discord server of an army is the main chat. It is where all discussions happen. It is the place where the army members, visitors, allies, and veterans can all communicate with each other. In this post, we will examine to what extent its activity affects the army maxes. It is expected that there will be a correlation between the two things. Of course, many parameters affect both the server activity and the number of people that attend for an army, so there will be the best possible estimation.
The number of troops online can be influenced by vets and visitors attending. Especially in times of war or tournaments, more veterans participate in their army events. Also, some armies have more visitors and allies, non-enlisted people, attending for them. Special events such as anniversaries or leader inductions can also influence the army sizes. Finally, some armies choose to host only one or two events per week, while others, many more. The latter ones provide more accurate data as their size points are the average of a larger number of events.
The chat activity can also be influenced by many factors. For example, having a higher number of events can cause a larger message amount. Also, more tight-knit communities have a larger message count as their members are more likely to choose to communicate in them more often. Once again, veterans and visitors can also influence the server activity.
Collected Raw Data Presented
It is now the time to look at the collected data and find out if there is a correlation between an active main chat and higher event attendance. The data that was collected was the number of messages in the main chat of several armies per week, over four weeks. After that, the average number of messages was calculated and taken into consideration. The weeks chosen were those of June, so that the results can be compared to the June Top Ten of the Month. Additionally, the size points of each army per those weeks were taken into consideration and the average was also calculated for them too. Size points were considered instead of total points, as the latter ones also include event points and consistency, which can alter the data. Below you can see the raw data that was collected.
Main chat activity per week for June, as it was counted
Size points for June based on the Top Tens
You will notice that some armies are missing. This is either because they weren’t open for long enough, or they hide their main chat for visitors. For Void Troops, 2 weeks weren’t counted as the message data was lost since their server was defaced. There were also issues with Fire Vikings‘ main chat for a week so that one is not included either. In addition, the Doritos of Club Penguin isn’t included as they shut down recently. Scarlet Republic spammed events in week 2, ending up having a very low size which lowered the accuracy of their stats. Also, notice that I used the “,” symbol instead of “.”, so size averages are written as 29,43, for example, instead of 29.43.
Data analysis
Looking at the data, we can see that Water Vikings has been the most active army with an average message count of 61240. They also had the most messages in a week, with 72128 in the first week of June. The Small-Medium army with the most messages was the Fire Vikings. They had an average of 19247 messages, with the most being an impressive 29148 in the last week of June. Both armies had an abnormally active main chat given their performance in the Top Tens. In WV’s case, it probably foreshadowed the rise they were about to witness, as they managed to get #1 in last week’s Top Ten. The army with the least average amount of messages was Penguins of Agartha, having 823. Special Weapons And Tactics had the fewest messages in a week, with 461 in the final week of June.
Size Points – Main Chat Message Count Graphs
I have included some graphs based on the data, so that you can better visualise it. The first one contains only the collected data, as you can see below.
Graph 1: The collected data placed in a graph
The orange line shows the SM/Major border, 20 size points. From the graph, we can see some more extreme cases. Space Force‘s size points are higher than expected, as they had a large attendance in their opening event and were only active in the Top Ten for the last two weeks of June. The cases of WV and SR were mentioned before and are even more visible in the graph. Below, in the following graphs, there can be seen the trend.
Graph 2: The trend based on the collected data
We can see that many extreme points alter the trend line. In an attempt to get a more accurate depiction, we can try to remove some of them.
Graph 3: The trend based on the corrected data
Conclusions Based on the Data
Graph 3 is now looking better. Based on the data for June, it seems like the expected size points of an army can be given by the equation y= 3*10^-8*x^2-0.0002*x+8.39. Y are the expected size points and x are the main chat messages. It appears that for major armies there is a correlation between server activity and troop attendance. This can either be direct or appear after a while, like WV’s case. For small-medium armies, it seems like server activity doesn’t influence their sizes much. This was expected, as SM sizes can be more easily influenced by visitors and allies attending, compared to major ones. Based on the equation, in order for an army to rise to major, it will need to reach an average of 23286 messages per week.
Where would IW and DCP place today?
Out of curiosity, I searched the number of main chat messages in some armies that have shut down and put that number in the equation to see where they would be today. The collected data was from last week July 20 to July 26. Ice Warriors had a total of 34358 messages in their main chat, while DCP had 17441. Using the equation, IW would have 36.93 size points and DCP 14.03. This means that if the first one was still active, it would have the fourth highest size points, right behind the Rebel Penguin Federation and the Templars. The latter one would have the eleventh highest size points, behind the Dark Warriors and the Shadow Legionaries.
Last of all, here is a Top Ten armies for June based on the average number of messages per army. The arrows depict the difference between the placement in this Messages Top Ten and the June Top Ten of the Month. Many armies have seen a positive position change since there are some armies that haven’t been included.
Top Ten Active Armies
1. Water Vikings ⟨61240⟩ [↑3]
2. Rebel Penguin Federation ⟨36806⟩ [↓1]
3. Aliens ⟨28299⟩ [↓1]
4. Templars ⟨27370⟩ [↑2]
5. Void Troops ⟨25689⟩ [↑2]
6. Help Force ⟨19682⟩ [↓1]
7. Fire Vikings ⟨19247⟩ [↑2]
8. Scarlet Republic ⟨7014⟩ [↑7]
9. Mercenaries ⟨7014⟩ [↑4]
10. Romans ⟨1836⟩ [↑6]
Click here for the Top Ten Statistics.
Did you enjoy this post? Do you believe the main chat activity has any correlation with the troop attendance? What are your thoughts?
Jojo Teri
Chief Executive Producer
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Professional Club Penguin player