As 2024 has drawn to a close, it is time to revisit the army predictions made by the community back in September. Let us look at the outcomes in key areas from the past year and see if the predictions hit the mark, or if there were some unexpected twists along the way!
Designed by Cassie
End-of-year predictions
Which army will claim the top spot in the Top Ten Armies of the Year?
Community Prediction: Army of Club Penguin
Actual Winner: Army of Club Penguin
Correct Predictions: 14
Stats: The community predicted that the Army of Club Penguin would reign supreme in the Top Ten Armies of the year, and they were correct.
Who do you think will win the Halloween-themed tournament?
Community Prediction: Secret Service
Actual Winner: Army of Club Penguin and Winged Hussars
Correct Predictions: 7
Stats: While the community predicted that the Secret Service would take home the title, it was a joint victory with the Winged Hussars and the Army of Club Penguin claiming it.
Who do you think will win Christmas Chaos 2024?
Community Prediction: Secret Service
Actual Winner: Rebel Penguin Federation
Correct Predictions: 6
Stats: Despite the community’s faith in the Secret Service, the Rebel Penguin Federation emerged victorious in this festive tournament.
Will any armies make a return to the community, if so, who?
Community Prediction: Doritos of Club Penguin
Actual Returns: Doritos, Scars, Dark Vikings, and Dark Pirates.
Correct Predictions: 6
Stats: The return of Doritos was expected, and they did indeed come back — but several other armies returned as well, including Scars and Dark Vikings, which surprised the community. Although the Ice Warriors were also a favorite to make a comeback, this did not happen, leaving the prediction for IW unfulfilled.
Will any leaders retire from the community, if so, who?
Community Prediction: Ugly
Actual Retirees: Ugly, Mafuka, Mocha, Legoman, Fun X Time, Fwapo, Zooy, Cait, Alu, Jojo, Sweater
Correct Predictions: 19
Stats: While the community primarily predicted Ugly’s retirement, there were many more leaders who decided to step down, including Mafuka, Mocha, Legoman, and several others. This made for a surprisingly high number of retirements, far exceeding the initial predictions. A total of 19 correct predictions were made, showing a strong foresight into leadership changes within the community.
Will any current S/M army be ranked as a Major at the end of 2024?
Community Prediction: Water Vikings
Actual Reclassifications: None
Correct Predictions: 0
Stats: The community predicted that the Water Vikings would leap to major status, but in the end, no S/M army was ranked as major by the end of 2024. Even though the Vikings managed to attain Major status, it was very short-lived. Despite strong efforts, no army made that jump, leaving the prediction unfulfilled.
Will any current major army be ranked as S/M at the end of 2024?
Community Prediction: People’s Imperial Confederation and Templars
Actual Reclassifications: People’s Imperial Confederation
Correct Predictions: 19
Stats: The community predicted that the People’s Imperial Confederation and the Templars might drop to S/M status by the end of 2024. In the end, only PIC made the shift, confirming the community’s forecast for that army. The Templars, however, remained a Major army, making this prediction partially correct.
How many wars will we witness between now and the end of the year?
Community Prediction: 5+
Actual: 3
Correct Predictions: 7
Stats: The community predicted that there would be more than five wars, but only three significant wars occurred in the final few months of 2024. Despite the lower number of wars, there were still intense clashes between armies, including SS vs. RPF, PRCP vs. RACP, and WV vs. SWAT. The prediction of 5+ wars turned out to be an overestimation, but a few managed to predict the correct number of wars that took place.
Who do you think will be inducted as a 2024 Legend? (Major or S/M)
Community Prediction: Ugly
Actual Inductees: Link3000 and Shinzo
Correct Predictions: 3
Stats: The community predicted Ugly, but Shinzo and Link took the legend spots. Still, a few other predictions were close.
Which army will own the most land on the map?
Community Prediction: Secret Service
Actual: Army of Club Penguin
Correct Predictions: 9
Stats: The community predicted that the Secret Service would dominate the map, but it was the Army of Club Penguin that ultimately controlled the most land. Despite a strong showing from other armies, ACP’s strategic moves secured them the top spot on the map, leaving the prediction for SS unfulfilled. Still, a few managed to predict the actual outcome correctly.
Top Predictors
First: Ugly
Second: Zooy, Alu, Kolo, and Mxlmr.
Third: !Yeeter, atinyy, Fly, jojoteri, Mogi4, and T_T4321
These top predictors showed impressive foresight, accurately calling the majority of key events in 2024. Congratulations to them for their sharp predictions!
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The community made some excellent predictions in 2024, with many of the top armies like ACP and RPF living up to expectations. While there were a few surprises—especially with some unexpected returns and changes in army rankings — the overall accuracy rate was quite high. What do you predict for 2025?
Spotty
Community Committee