A new year is fast approaching, and with that, it is time to look back at the year we have had and try to answer questions about the future.
Designed by Master DS
Every year, community members try to “predict” the future by claiming the “downfall of armies” is here. They suggest that the army community is dying and is nothing compared to the original era. However, last year, I created a post titled ‘The Downfall of Armies is Not Here‘. In this post, I attempted to discredit the claims of the community’s imminent death. To do this, I looked at the highest max sizes from the last Top Ten of each month in 2023.
Looking at the max sizes for the last week of each month may not provide the most accurate reading of maxes within the community. However, it does provide a fair overview of what armies are maxing throughout the year. The end of the month can be the best or the worst time for armies. Take September for example, the September drop often leaves many armies crippled but the end of the month can either see armies gain some stability or continue to fall. Ultimately, it is a mixed bag for armies, providing an insight into some of the community’s best and worst maxes.
Additionally, the post explored previous years, from 2011-2023, excluding 2017-2019. Unlike the research for 2023, this took the highest max from the last week of each year’s Top Ten. Ultimately both of these showed that the community would not die in 2024. Instead, the community would continue on an upward trend as we reached the beginning of the year. I also predicted that the community would see sizes of 30-40 as the year began. However, my predictions showed that many retirements would lead to size decreases in February. Yet, my predictions saw a glimmer of hope for the community as fresh blood would take leadership roles and help to breathe life into the community.
Highest Maxes in 2023
Now that the end of the year is nearly upon us, it is time to look back at 2024 and see if the predictions were correct. Additionally, I aim to find out whether or not the significant change in the community has been positive and can be upheld.
2024 In Stats; A Growing Community?
Upon starting this post, I jumped straight into the stats, gathering armies’ highest maxes from each Top Ten. To ensure I got the most accurate reading of the year, I did this for each week until November 10. That was the most recent Top Ten that came out at the time. The stats can seem confusing for some people because of the number of armies on the Top Ten. Yet, they show a more in-depth look at maxes in comparison to last year’s.
As shown above, there are about 24 armies present on the chart. Each army has seen weeks of growth and weeks of decline, but let us take a closer look and compare it to last year. The last Top Ten of January last year showed the highest max at 31. Yet, if we look into January 2023, the highest max seen on the Top Ten was 57, achieved by Templars. This max was achieved in the first week of January. However, the highest max of January this year was in the last week and showed a slight decline of 56.
One thing made clear from this year’s maxes is that armies have been maxing more this year compared to 2023. The composition of the charts is different, but they display a more accurate view of where the community is currently. Arguably, one of the best months has been July. Armies’ momentum has continued to grow as we approach the end of the year showing tremendous change from last year.
Taking a look at the year overall, without individual armies, we see that the highest max has not dipped below 27. Additionally, the maxes are consistently over 30 and even 35. Arguably, this year has seen armies grow at a surprising rate. Ultimately, armies have continued to exceed expectations. I predicted that we would see maxes of 30-40 in January. Yet, we saw heights of 56 troops. While I predicted February’s drop-off and then March’s resurgence, no one could have predicted we would see sizes of 62 occur in March or 64 in September.
The infamous ‘September drop’ is an interesting one to consider when exploring the rise or fall of armies. The highest max of September was an astounding 64. Compared to last year, even though there was a drop-off, armies have risen. What was considered as the ‘September drop’ could now be considered irrelevant. Compared to previous years in the CPPS era, it is not affecting armies as badly. It seems that armies have found a new lease on life and are expanding even more. Of course, there are still naysayers who say the end is neigh. Yet, we have no signs to show that it is. Apart from the fact that there have been a lot of meme/short-term armies, various positives can be taken from multiple parts of the year.
Thus far, November is one of the best months of the year. The Christmas Chaos tournament is yet to take place but it will undoubtedly have a big impact on armies’ sizes. Are we going to see one of the biggest Christmas Chaos’ in recent years?
Christmas Chaos 2023
The second week of November saw 79 troops become the highest max of the week, and the second highest max of the year. Yet, although it is not included, the third week of November saw the highest max drop to 54. However, this is still a tremendous figure and it is one that was not seen this time last year. The stats have truly shown a tremendous rise for armies. While there have been moments of doubt, the community can look forward to the end of the year.
What To Expect in 2025
Looking towards next year, what can we expect? Predicting next year is probably one of the most difficult things to do. But what do I think will happen? Well, if the community continues on its current path, one could predict that armies will reach greater sizes more consistently. However, if we are thinking realistically, that won’t happen. While there are a couple of armies in the community on an upward trajectory, this is not the case for every army. Also, there are little armies that could legitimately keep high sizes consistently (e.g. 40+).
With that said, when looking towards the future, we have to assume that while there will be a boost for Christmas Chaos, there will also be a drop-off. It does not take a genius to predict this. Ultimately, next year, circumstances will be different. Some armies may cease to exist, there may also be a heavy drop-off for one or two major armies within the community. I can predict that this will happen. Yet, other majors will also experience a drop off from the sizes we are now seeing.
By February, sizes of 60+ will seem to be a thing of the past. Armies will be a lot less consistent than they are today. The top armies may still be able to get sizes of 40 but the armies will not be seeing the highly competitive maxes of today. Furthermore, questions will be held over CPJ’s future. If CPJ falls then a couple of major armies will be thrust into the limelight, possibly even dropping to SM. But will armies continue to thrive in 2025 overall? (Could a major army become small/medium for most of 2025?) Well, this year took everyone by surprise, no one expected the growth the community has seen. However, I do not think that the community can continue to boost its sizes even further.
Army of Club Penguin vs Secret Service in Project Conquest: Blood Bowl
2025 may not be a struggle for the community as a whole, but it will be hugely different compared to this year. We have already seen SM armies drop off and fall into the abyss after a successful year. The main struggle for the community is and will be for SM armies – trying to maintain consistent maxes of a decent size. The question is, however, has this year’s growth inspired people and armies or will it make them complacent? Will new armies emerge on the scene and become a mainstay within 2025? While it is unlikely, one never knows what the future will hold.
If the community can continue to prosper, the spotlight will undoubtedly be put on certain parts of the community, questioning the need for change. If that does happen, we could witness a very different community this time next year. Not only that but a thriving community could entice more veterans to return, briefly or not. As for wars, a big war is currently on the horizon and it is only a matter of time before the war breaks out between the two armies. But how far will these armies go to win? Also, how will the community look after that war? Could the war force other armies to act? Or will it start a chain reaction for armies to war against each other similar to what we have seen in recent times?
Whatever happens, it is sure to be interesting and we will be here for all of it. What do you predict will happen in 2025? Will armies witness a drop in size? Can the community’s current momentum be maintained? Will we see a new World War take place in 2025?
Coolguy
Chief Executive Producer