As a new year approaches, one is about to come to a close; yet many questions about the future remain unanswered. 

Designed by Master DS

Almost every year, people have preyed on the downfall of Club Penguin armies, speaking out about how there’s been a massive decrease in sizes over the years and how armies are no longer active. However, armies continue to surprise people with their longevity. In the past, we have looked over why armies are not in decline but one question that people may have is “What can we expect to see next year?”. This question can refer to many things from sizes to events. We aim to tackle this question in this post.

When thinking about sizes, we have seen them fluctuate throughout the year from low to high. This has led to some armies dropping down from Major status, with some making their way back up. This makes sizes matter even more for armies trying to maintain their status. Of course, it also matters for Small/Medium armies because they are often disregarded if they don’t have good sizes.

This is not the only argument that people have when talking about sizes. As mentioned above, people prey on the downfall of armies, comparing sizes to the past. Many claim that sizes are rapidly decreasing so, to disprove this, some research has been done. First off, a chart has been created showing the maximum size from the last Top Ten posts of each month (not counting those which go into the month after e.g. November 27th-December 3rd). Since December has not come to an end yet, the last Top Ten that was posted has been added in its place.

As we can see, despite the critics slamming the decreasing sizes, 2023 has been quite successful for armies. Now, this does not give us a whole view of every army but it does give us an insight into the most active months. Weirdly, the September drop had nothing on armies this year. Sizes increased from August up to October before they fell in November. This could be because of the wars and the tournament that took place but 2022 had similar events and yet it was considered to be one of the worst years for many armies. It is important to note that these sizes may not reflect the entire month but are an insight into how each month ended.

To further analyse the changes in size between now and the past, a graphic was made showing the different sizes from the last week of the Top Ten of 2011-2016 and 2020-2023. Of course, as previously stated, 2023 has not finished yet, but we took sizes from the last Top Ten that was posted. For 2012 and 2013, the last Top Tens were merged with awards so no sizes were added. Therefore, we took the highest max size from the previous week.

When looking at this chart, we see what could be considered as one of the biggest months of the year. However, when looking at the years, there is not a decrease in size. In fact, in comparison to 2011, ’12, ’13, ’15, ’16 and ’21, there’s been an increase. Of course, when looking at these sizes, context has to be considered. When Club Penguin was still online there were many major and S/M armies, much more than we have today. Also, these stats are taken from the month of December, disregarding other months and sizes. Therefore, the data may only be one-half of the story.

In 2014 there were 10 armies on Club Penguin Army Central‘s Top Ten in the last week of December. Alongside this, there were 16 in Small-Medium Army Central’s Top Ten. In total, that is 26 armies. While it is true that some of these armies only achieved a handful of penguins online, if there were fewer armies these maxes may have been bigger. However, this is not definite as many people duel-enlisted and army-hopped, much more so than today.

Therefore, it is truly unknown what sizes or armies would be like in 2014 or any of the other years if the conditions were comparable to today. Yet, with only 12 armies being in the Top Tens in the second-to-last week of 2023 it is clear that there has been a big decrease in the amount of armies but an increase in the sizes of armies.

Elite Guardians vs Rebel Penguin Federation in the Legends Cup

With all of this being said, Club Penguin armies are currently stable and increasing in size. But what can we expect to see from the next year? To answer this question, we have taken the statistics from December 2021 to March 2022. With these statistics we will be able to see the trend that it had, whether it was positive or negative and how it compares to 2023, paving a pathway for 2024 predictions.

Before doing so, it is important to mention that 2022 was a year dominated by the Templars. The maxes they were able to achieve may not reflect the entire community. Alongside this, in February, the Night Warriors hosted events on Yukon, maxing major sizes. Whilst we have not used the deducted sizes, we have used the original size that the army achieved.

It is clear to see the big changes between 2021/22 to 2022/23. Despite army maxes improving in 2023, it showed there was a massive drop at the start of the year. This is the complete opposite of 2021/22 as the year saw sizes increase until March.

Overall, it has been a wild ride for armies and context is required for each situation, for example, December 2022 saw Xing‘s final invasion take place and Templars’ golden year come to an end. Following on from there, as previously stated, the Night Warriors incident occurred in February. Disregarding NW’s max, the highest would’ve been 61. This would see a much less dramatic decrease when looking at February-March.

Looking into the future, it’s clear to see that sizes have heightened for December so they would be expected to drop in January. However, do not be surprised if we see sizes decrease in February too. The closure of the year will see members drop off, with some members retiring. Despite this, the community is still expected to be somewhat active as a war rages on. As we enter the new year, we should expect to see maxes of 30-40.

The sizes that we will see may not continue throughout the whole month but the war could affect the drop in February. This is because members often become fatigued during wars. With this in mind, their minds drift away from armies in search of less-draining but fun activities. However, it may also do the opposite and allow troops to actively engage with their army. This would mean that armies may maintain a small boost from the war. Yet, this boost would not be as significant as maxes of 40.

Coup Crusaders vs Elite Guardians in the Christmas Crusade II

When looking at Club Penguin armies as a whole we can expect the same amount of tournaments, if not more. Alongside this, we will see many retirements as people choose to put their swords away. However, these retirements may not hinder the community as members often stay active after retiring. Hopefully, they will help to craft a brighter future for generations to come.

Club Penguin Armies will continue to improve as a league and media site. Drama will also continue to take place, as per usual. Controversy will continue to surround armies and much more. 2023 has been a successful year for armies with an increase in sizes and tournament but let’s hope 2024 has even more in store! Do you think 2023 has been a successful year for armies? Would you like to see a more in-depth analysis of the years that have passed?

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Mchappy is interning at Club Penguin Armies as the Chief Executive Producer. Max held him at gunpoint to finish his biography.